Wales doesn't need to build the biggest AI. It needs to build the best connections.

Artificial intelligence is reshaping the global economy, but much of the conversation is dominated by the same players: the United States, China and a handful of technology giants investing billions in computing infrastructure, talent and advanced AI systems.

Where does that leave a nation of three million people? The question is particularly timely following Adam Price's October 2026 visit to Boston, where he addressed Harvard University's Growth Lab on whether small nations such as Wales can compete in the age of AI. The answer, we would argue, depends on how we define competitiveness.

Wales cannot compete with the world's largest technology companies on scale, nor should it try. Its opportunity lies in developing specialist capabilities, applying AI effectively across its economy, and connecting Welsh businesses and institutions to knowledge and opportunities around the world.

In other words, Wales's competitive advantage may lie as much in its global connections as in the resources within its borders.

Small nations can compete differently

Research on regional innovation systems suggests that competitiveness depends not simply on the resources an economy possesses, but on how effectively its institutions, businesses and universities exchange knowledge and collaborate.

Wales already has strengths worth building upon: compound semiconductors, cybersecurity, advanced manufacturing and Welsh-language technology. These offer credible opportunities for specialisation within the wider AI economy. But developing specialist industries is only part of the challenge.

For most Welsh businesses, the immediate economic opportunity lies in adopting AI to improve productivity, develop new services and compete internationally. This requires more than access to technology. It demands skills, organisational change and practical expertise.

And some of that expertise already exists, outside Wales.

From brain drain to brain circulation

For decades, the departure of talented people has been framed as a loss to smaller economies. Yet research on transnational entrepreneurship offers a different perspective. Saxenian's work on technology communities in Silicon Valley and Asia demonstrates how internationally mobile professionals can support economic development in their places of origin through knowledge exchange, investment and commercial relationships.

This is known as brain circulation. Taiwan provides a particularly compelling example. Its semiconductor development benefited not only from domestic industrial investment, but also from relationships with engineers and entrepreneurs working in Silicon Valley. These international connections helped transfer expertise, identify opportunities and connect emerging Taiwanese businesses to global technology markets. The lesson for Wales is not to replicate Taiwan's semiconductor industry. It is to recognise that talent does not have to return home to contribute to economic development.

A Welsh technology executive in California, a researcher in Japan, or an investor in London may possess expertise and relationships that could help Welsh businesses innovate, internationalise or access capital. The challenge is to turn these connections into sustained collaboration.

From global networks to economic value

Wales already has an international diaspora with considerable professional expertise. Organisations such as GlobalWelsh have created networks connecting Welsh people across industries and continents. But having a network is not the same as generating economic impact. The next step is to connect international expertise systematically to the needs of Welsh businesses, universities and entrepreneurs.

This could mean matching technology companies with experienced international mentors, connecting researchers with overseas collaborators, or helping promising Welsh firms access specialist investors and new markets. Scotland's GlobalScot network offers a useful example of how international business relationships can be incorporated into economic development support. 

For Wales, three priorities stand out.

First, focus on technological areas where Wales already has credible strengths rather than attempting to compete across every aspect of AI.

Second, help established Welsh businesses adopt AI effectively, connecting them with practical expertise at home and abroad.

Third, make brain circulation a central component of the Welsh Diaspora Strategy, with clear mechanisms for turning international connections into knowledge exchange, investment and commercial opportunities.

A different definition of success

The success of Wales's AI strategy should not be judged solely by investment announcements, technology start-ups or the number of people returning to Wales. It should also be measured by the capabilities Welsh businesses develop, the international partnerships they establish, and the economic value those relationships create. Small nations cannot always compete by matching the resources of larger economies. But they can compete by combining specialised capabilities with exceptional international connectivity.

Wales's greatest opportunity in the age of AI may not be to build the biggest technology, but to become one of the most effective small nations at mobilising global knowledge for domestic economic and social benefit.

For the supporting research, international comparisons and detailed policy recommendations, read the full essay here:

Beyond Borders: How Wales Can Compete in the Age of AI Through Global Knowledge Networks.