Exporting to the UAE: A Strategic Move for Welsh Businesses

As conflict continues to cast a shadow across the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates is emerging as a remarkable story of economic resilience. Not merely weathering the storm, but using it as a springboard to deepen global trade ties and cement its position as one of the world’s premier commercial hubs. For Welsh exporters weighing where to focus scarce time and budget over the next year, that resilience is precisely what makes the UAE worth serious attention now.

The numbers behind that resilience are striking. In 2025, the UAE recorded total foreign trade of Dh6 trillion — a 15 per cent increase on the previous year. Non-oil merchandise trade surged even more dramatically, rising 27 per cent to Dh3.8 trillion and breaching the $1 trillion mark for the first time in the country’s history. GDP rose 6.2 per cent to Dh1.9 trillion ($517.2 billion), driven by a 6.8 per cent expansion in the non-oil economy, led by wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, and financial services — a deliberate long-term strategy to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons and build a diversified, globally integrated economy. Regional conflict has created genuine headwinds — airspace restrictions, rerouted flights, and higher shipping insurance premiums. However, the UAE’s banking, telecoms, power, and logistics infrastructure has held firm throughout, with ports such as Khor Fakkan and Fujairah rapidly repositioned as full cargo gateways when regional routes came under pressure. Nearly two-thirds of UAE-based executives expect trade growth to match or exceed 2025 levels through the rest of this year, a confidence level ahead of many more mature markets at a time when global trade growth is broadly slowing.

The Structural Case for 2027<br />The outlook strengthens further into 2027. The World Bank forecasts UAE GDP growth of 5.1 per cent next year, with imports and exports projected to expand by close to 18 per cent as regional conditions stabilise and hydrocarbon output rebounds alongside continued non-oil momentum. The single biggest structural tailwind, however, is the UAE’s Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) programme: 28 agreements concluded by mid-2025, granting preferential access to markets representing nearly three billion consumers. As more of these move from signed to fully operational, the UAE is positioning itself as the world’s most connected mid-sized trading nation — less an end destination for exporters than a gateway into a much larger network of preferential markets. Crucially, the sectors expected to lead 2027’s growth — technology, digital infrastructure, renewable energy, and logistics — map closely onto Wales’s own areas of industrial strength.

Wales Already Has Momentum in the Region<br />That sectoral alignment isn’t theoretical — Wales already has live momentum in the UAE. December 2025’s Wales Investment Summit secured over £16 billion in investment commitments from delegates representing 29 countries, and Trade & Invest Wales ran several dedicated Dubai business missions in 2026. Office for National Statistics figures show Wales already runs a trade surplus (£4.5 billion on the latest published 2023 figures) across goods and services combined — meaning the UAE’s growth trajectory represents genuine headroom to build on an already-positive trading position, rather than a market Welsh exporters would be entering from a standing start.

A Ready-Made Route In

Over the next twelve months, Business Wales has built a subsidised events calendar specifically shaped to capture this opportunity. ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi (31 October–6 November 2026) gives clean energy, decommissioning, and carbon capture companies a platform in front of over 205,000 attendees from 60 markets — directly aligned with the renewable energy priorities the UAE is building into 2027. That’s followed in January 2027 by World Health Expo Dubai for life sciences, MedTech, EDTech, Wellbeing and Multi-Sector exporters, alongside a parallel UAE export market visit expected to build on Gulfood 2026, where Wales sent its largest-ever food and drink delegation of 19 companies. All three carry Welsh Government subsidy toward flights, accommodation, and stand costs, meaningfully lowering the practical barrier to testing the market for the first time.

The Bottom Line

Put together, the next twelve months line up unusually well for Welsh exporters: a UAE economy still growing through regional headwinds, a CEPA network opening preferential access to almost three billion consumers, sector priorities — energy transition, life sciences, Education, wellbeing, food and drink, digital infrastructure — that mirror Wales’s own strengths, and a ready-made, subsidised calendar of entry points already booked in from October 2026 through January 2027. It is worth being clear-eyed that the trade figures underpinning the UAE growth story are national and UK-wide rather than Wales-specific — independently verified, granular data on actual Wales–UAE trade flows remains thin. But the direction of travel, and the practical, government-backed route to test it, are both clear. For Welsh businesses in energy, life sciences, food and drink, or advanced manufacturing, this is a rare instance where genuine market opportunity and subsidised market access are arriving in the same window.

About Mark:

Mark Prendergast is a seasoned C-suite executive with 25 years of leadership at Harris Pye Group, where he scaled the business globally across 19 countries, leading to a successful MBO and strategic sale. A versatile strategist, he offers deep expertise in finance, operations, and business development, specializing in turnarounds, M&A integration, and strategic growth roadmaps. Currently, he serves as a Non-Executive Director, Strategic Advisor, and Angel Investor. His focus is leveraging emerging technologies to drive sustainability and innovation within engineering, renewable energy, and oil and gas, helping organizations navigate complex challenges and achieve their next level of success. 

Mark is based in Dubai and leads the GlobalWelsh Middle East hub. Get in touch with Mark via middleeast@globalwelsh.com.<br /> <br />_{Sources: ARN News Centre; Gulf News; The National; Central Bank of the UAE Quarterly Economic Review (March 2026); World Bank UAE Economic Forecast; Office for National Statistics, International trade in UK nations, regions and cities: 2023; Business Wales (Overseas Events Programme 2026–2027, ADIPEC 2026, World Health Expo Dubai, Gulfood Dubai); Welsh Government, Wales Investment Summit 2025.}